Project description - Does the Geography of Russian Northern Peripheries Really Change?

Dynamics of Spatial Restructuring and Industrial Development in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Murmansk Oblast

Project leader: Prof. Markku Tykkyläinen, Department of Geography, University of Joensuu P.O. Box 111, 80101 JOENSUU; tel. +358 (0)13 2513445, +358 (0)50 3011570, fax. 358 (0)13 2513454, markku.tykkylainen(at)joensuu.fi, www.joensuu.fi/geo/markku_t.html

Introduction

The spatial structure of the Russian North is experiencing pressure to change. For example, the production of oil and gas is increasing in the north, but on the other hand many communities are disintegrating and vanishing. How are northern regions and communities developing, as the global market-led economic regime consolidates in the socio-economic structures of northern Russia? Socio-economic indicators point to very divergent development paths in northern regions.

Except for some rare localities, many northern regions are considered to be the convicts of old institutional legacies - constituting declining regions, whose socio-economic structures break up accordingly as the economy becomes modernised. In addition to declining parts, the new economic landscape consists of pockets of development. These developments lead to many questions about the future of the Russian North. How will the recent development trends change geographically, when and under what conditions? Who are the actors, when economies transform? What do locals and potential new residents wish from new development strategies and how do they act? What kinds of spatial structures are sustainable, for what time-span should this sustainability be established, and by whom?

Aims

The research project investigates the development mechanisms of resource-based industries in the Russian North and their interplay with socio-economic changes and the transformation of spatial structures. The aim is to understand and to theorise the dynamics of socio-economic restructuring from the era of the planned economy to the present and to reveal its consequences for the population and local and regional development in the Russian North.

The project starts with the analysis of the legacy of spatial structures: during the Soviet era the northern regions and the periphery of the country were industrialised and provided with the necessary infrastructure. The exploitation and industrialisation of the northern regions led to economically and socially problematic regional structure with its single-industry communities. As a consequence, there are, for instance, numerous large communities, which is rather exceptional in arctic areas. The research project investigates the development of the communities and the spatial structures challenged by the Russian new economic and political environments. The development processes are studied by carrying out field-work (interviews and surveys) and by using the techniques of geoinformatics.

The analysis of regional and community structure creates a basis for the evaluation of geo-economic development opportunities. The research examines the development mechanisms of industry, labour force and urban, regional and supraregional systems in the Russians North focusing on mining communities (as representative of resource-based communities). The project aims to find out about future preferences of the population and to analyse their expectations for local and regional development.

The research will not only produce theoretical but also practical knowledge in the fields of local and regional restructuring, industrial development and social and demographic changes in the Russian North. In addition, the study will examine future preconditions that are necessary for industrial activities in the northern regions. Based on this information, it will be possible to outline future development alternatives in these regions

Research tasks

Mattias Spies: The impacts of resource-based industrial transformation on urban and regional structures

A post-graduate student (Mattias Spies) will study local and regional transformation caused by industrial development in the northern Russian resource-based localities during the last two decades. The study will utilise GIS tools as research method. The main study area will be the city of Norilsk, which is the central production area of nickel and palladium metals globally. Other areas under investigation are resource communities and infrastructure serving resource-based production.

During the Soviet era the city of Norilsk experienced rapid growth and after the years of crisis in the 1990s it is currently facing major industrial investments and social restructuring, which are affecting the present and future form of urban infrastructure. On the other hand, migration to both directions prevails. There are plans to relocate  inhabitants to the south and, in contrast, fortune-hunters are moving in. From the interests of the mining industry, there is need for new infrastructure and logistic solutions. In mining towns on the Kola Peninsula, the spatial structure is under renewal. Nevertheless, industrial investments are still very meagre there.

The study will provide detailed information on urban and regional planning in the arctic areas during the Soviet and post-Soviet eras. In addition, the study uncovers the latest changes in settlement and industrial infrastructure, which are due to the privatisation and restructuring of resource-based companies.

The research evaluates also the feasibility of different development alternatives related to infrastructure and logistics in the Russian North. Moreover, the project attempts to develop GIS-methods to be more suitable for analysing Russian urban and regional structures and logistic alternatives in general.  The final product of this post-graduate project is a PhD dissertation scheduled to be completed by 2008.

Eugenia Prokhorova: The impact of resource monopolies on the restructuring of the geographical space in Russia: the case of Norilsk Nickel

Since the breakdown of the Soviet system the spatial organisation of Russia has been experiencing dramatic restructuring. First, the administrative-territorial structure, which was the foundation for the geographically larger USSR's spatial order, has currently changed its functions and connotations in the course of emerging Russian semi-privatised structures and the following regionalisation process. Second, the weakening of the state and the privatisation of resource use by powerful non-state  actors has also led to a growing differentiation of geographical space and the establishment of the alternative supralocal and supraregional organisations, functioning across the boundaries of the present state administrative subjects. This new organisation is spatially anchored in the new centres of political-economic activity and it is formed by the activities of new economic structures, among which large resource monopolies are the most influential. Locally, urban structures have become more fragmented due the low level of investments and migration, and single-industry towns are in difficulties due to attempts to outsource the service sector from the auspices of companies.

This study seeks to contribute to the analysis of the contemporary socio-spatial organisation of Russia and aims at exploring the impact of a resource monopoly on the restructuring of the local and regional spaces in Russia. The case to be considered is the resource monopoly of Norilsk Nickel, which is a bright example of the construction of a non-state, self-sufficient socio-spatial organisation in the Russian North, existing and networking multi-locally across the administrative boundaries.

The post-graduate research project contains an analytical part which considers the development of the Norilsk Nickel as a geographical network of cities, mines and processing units, the spatial organisation of the conglomerate in the present system of administrative areas and the enterprise's relations to the administrative subjects (i.e. regions and localities). The question of spatiality will be given particular attention - the study will consider the spatial "expansion" of the enterprise (from economic initiatives of the enterprise to the resettlement programmes), its role in constructing urban structures, the corporative social and economic policy "across the space" and the corporative identity formation.   

The in-depth empirical study is planned to be conducted in selected resource communities. The anthropological character of the study implies the qualitative methodology, i.e. interviews in-depth with experts and workers, archives analysis, media analysis, analysis of related secondary data. In the later stage of the study the focuses of the quantitative study and the use of GIS-tools are likely to be formulated on the bases of the gathered qualitative information and the survey to be conducted. The subproject utilises also the satellite images and remote sensing data produced in the project. The final product of this post-graduate project is a PhD dissertation scheduled to be completed in 2007.

Kari Vuorinen: The dynamics of migration in the Russian North:  problem out of control - crisis under control?

The migration that is taking place in Russia has gained new socio-geographical features during the last ten years. Migration is the result of various individual and social factors and their combinations. There are results which indicate that Russian conditions bring about the different pattern of internal migration compared with the patterns in the West. Parallel to internal migration in Russia and the former Soviet Union, the strong external migration of the Russian population is taking place from Russia to Europe and America.

In the Russian North, the population flows are very closely connected to the exploitation of natural resources and the development of cities surrounded by areas rich in natural resources. Due to restructuring in the mining industry, the structure of society in the Russian North that is mainly based on the mining operations is undergoing significant changes. The aim of the post-graduate research is to investigate migration and population flows and the causal mechanism producing them in the Russian North. From the viewpoint of the spatial dynamics of society, migration flows illustrate the ability of communities, families and individuals to cope with changing circumstances.

The economic value of the Russian North has always been of great importance to the state, which is why it has tried to support the population there in many ways. Laws and decrees were enacted especially during the Soviet Era in order to support and encourage people to move to the north and live in harsh conditions in the high-latitude zone. After the collapse of the Soviet Union many other similar laws were enacted. Attention was also paid to the situation of the indigenous population. In order to support the development under the conditions of a semi-privatised economy, a number of different regional development programmes were established, some of which support the out-migration from the northern areas. However, with the help of certain laws, cities in the northern regions were turned into so-called closed cities. Hence, it is difficult to permanently move to one of those cities. This category includes cities such as Norilsk, but it is also planned to give cities located on the Kola Peninsula (e.g. Nikel and Zapolyarnyj) the closed city status. Through this measure it is tried to prevent people in Russia illegally moving to theses areas. The aim of the research is to create new theories in the fields of regional dynamics and community formation by studying the dynamics of population flows. Attention is paid to the relationship between legislation and regional development programmes as well as spatial development. Interviewing members of the local population and authorities in Krasnoyarsk Krai and immigration authorities in Moscow will be an integral part of the research process.

In this migration study, the specific Russian features will be examined from a viewpoint of current theory of human geography. The aim is, at the same time, to outline new theories based on the empirical investigation of the Russian specificity. The completion of this subproject is planned for 2007 when the author will finish his doctoral dissertation.

Yrjö Myllylä: Evaluation of the industrial, social and logistical developments in Murmansk Oblast

The aim of this research is to assess the future development of economic and social conditions and structures in Murmansk Oblast. The setting up of the assessment requires investigation of the development of transport and telecommunications infrastructure as well as other logistics. The methods of the study are based on futures studies combined with secondary data and the support of geoinformatics. 

The Delphi method, which is most known as a method developed for futures studies, is the methodological tool in this research. The iterative rounds of interviews, which are central to the Delphi method, are preceded by a description of the current state of the region which is investigated by time series analysis and thematic interviews.

The study uses theoretical starting points from futures studies and applies a cluster-based approach in conceptualising industrial development. Central to the concept of futures studies is that one cannot predict the future only on the basis of past development. The cluster-based approach emphasises the product and product group thinking and co-operation among different lines of business as an important factor for production and market activities. Clusters manifest themselves and materialise in geographical spaces, which requires analysis of transport infrastructure.

A so-called Delphi panel will be set up during the research process, and it will be involved in at least two rounds of interviews. The final composition of the panel consisting of approximately 50-100 persons, will be specified at a later stage of the research process. The main actors of Murmansk Oblast and other actors who have the most powerful influence on the development of the region will receive the strongest representation on the panel. In addition, similar decision-makers and opinion-leaders from, for instance, Finland, Sweden and Norway, will be chosen to join the panel as experts. The Delphi panel operates as an iterative process, where the panel utilises the information from different sources with the aim to form a common opinion on the questions asked. Between the different rounds of interviews, the panel receives summaries from the previous round, and each respondent reviews and refines his/her views on the basis of the other respondents' answers.

The study provides new geographical information about industrial, social and logistical developments in Murmansk Oblast. Furthermore, it creates new insights and research findings to explain the regional development of major industrial sites in the Russian North that could be also utilised at a more general than case-study level.

It is anticipated that the research project will be completed within four years. The completion of the subproject is planned for 2007 when the student will finalise his doctoral dissertation.

Vesa Rautio: The management of industrial restructuring in the Russian North

The mining sector has been rationalised very rapidly in Western countries during the last few decades. Aspects such as the organisation of work, schedules and housing have been modernised from the traditional modes of industrial society towards the more flexible modes of information society. Socio-spatial structures of communities and entire regions are changing because of the abandonment of the on-site mining town concept, increasing robotisation and advanced communications. In Russia, major mining companies, such as Norilsk Nickel, were privatised after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Privatisation has created a need to search for alternative community types and logistic routes. It is also necessary to decrease labour intensity and to cut production costs in order to cope in the global mining business. For the companies' mining sites the process has led to pressure to restructure.

The aim of this study is to develop new theories focusing on the management of industrial restructuring in the Northern Russian context. The study aims to explain the social impacts of restructuring on communities and employees in the extreme conditions of the Russian North. Furthermore, the study aims to analyse the willingness of the local people to adapt to the socio-economic changes caused by sophisticated technology and the reorganisation of work. Finally, the project investigates various options of relocating redundant employees in this situation.

The research area of the study is the city of Norilsk, which is the main production area of Norilsk Nickel. The city of Norilsk is situated in Northern Siberia, with almost 300,000 inhabitants living in extremely harsh conditions and suffering from pollution problems. In spite of its peripheral location the city is the main production area of nickel and palladium metals in the global mining market.

In general, the aim is to analyse the process of restructuring of Northern Russian mining communities. The subquestions of the study are:                                                                               

• What are the socio-economic consequences for the employees?
• How is the state going to support the process of adaptation?
• How is the company going to co-operate with other actors (e.g. workers and the public sector) to ensure realisation of sustainable restructuring?

Another subquestion is whether Western organisations, such as the World Bank and EU, have a role in the process. The degree of acceptance in terms of restructuring will be investigated by structured interviews with mining workers. The sample size from the target areas will be up to 400 people. In addition, the study includes expert interviews to find out about the policy measures of the company and public-sector officials. Exemplary models of restructuring are taken from Australia and Canada, where modern mining technology has reshaped communities and entire regions during the last ten years. Furthermore, the specific local conditions of the Russian North will be taken into consideration. The study provides new geographical information about industrial development in the area during the last decades. Furthermore, it creates new social science theory to explain the regional development of major industrial sites in the Russian context.

Rautio is a post-doc researcher in the project, and this subproject will be completed by the end of 2007.

Stephen Fortescue: How for it possible to overcome geographical determinism in Russia's new market-led conditions?

There is a long tradition in the study of Russia of "geographical determinism", the belief that Russia's climate and remoteness, especially of those areas where the major natural resources are situated, have had system-defining social, political and economic effects. In particular, according to this tradition, there has been a strong tendency - a determined tendency - towards a highly interventionist, confiscatory state. Such a state is required to ensure that geographically difficult resources are exploited and that the rents obtained are put to socially oriented use.

Fortescue is in charge of the subproject which evaluates Russia's prospects of overcoming the geographical determinism of climate and remoteness, said to make inevitable an interventionist state. Private corporate investments in agriculture in the south and mining in the north is examined, to determine whether corporate owners can thrive in market conditions. The focus is on the investment policies of private investors and their relations to the state, particularly through taxation, in order to determine whether they will lead Russia to profitable and socially beneficial exploitation of its natural resources. The results will tell us whether fundamental change in Russia's political economy is sustainable.

Stephen Fortescue is Associate Professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, University of New South Wales (Sydney) and his research is financed by his institution in Australia.

Markku Tykkyläinen: Transformation of spatial structure in the Russian North

This study focuses research on analysing the transformation of the spatial structure of the Russian North as a result of both the changes in the competitiveness of the industry and the changing infrastructure and logistics. Data are based on the material collected in the project by the researchers (surveys, interviews and data based on geoinformatics). The aim of this subproject is to analyse how this "prioritised" and economically and socially problematic regional structure in the Russian North transforms to a more competitive state. This transformation is investigated in the context of modern development theories scrutinising how different factors of development bring about new socio-economic structures and their spatial manifestations, new socio-economic and industrial landscapes. This study will give new insights and theoretical interpretations to the transformation of resource-based sectors in the Russian North. The study also gives theoretical underpinnings and impulses to the work of PhD students in the project.

Markku Tykkyläinen is the scientist-in-charge of the project and acts as a Professor at the Department of Geography of the University of Joensuu.

Oleg Andreev: A local Russian insight in research

Dr. Andreev is a social scientist from the Kola Peninsula, with a versatile and international academic track record. He will contribute to the project by organising the editing and publication of the project's results in Russia. In addition, Andreev is in charge of organising the field work of the project in Murmansk Oblast and Krasnoyarsk Krai. In co-operation with the research group, Andreev will carry out the above-mentioned tasks by working for four months per year at the University of Joensuu.

Expected results of the project

The main goal of the project is to make contributions to the theory of human geography. The research will not only produce theoretical but also practical knowledge in the fields of regional restructuring, industrial development and population change in the Russian North. It tests and develops assessment and analysis methods in new conditions, i.e. the Delphi method and the application of geoinformatics for assessment and forecasting in the Russian conditions.

In addition, the study will examine the future preconditions that are necessary for the success of industrial activities in the northern regions. Based on this information, it will be possible to outline the future development alternatives in these regions, and get experience for further research on Russian development. In a nutshell, the project will produce new geographical regional development theory that explains the development of peripheral resource communities and regional structures in Russia and develops tools for the assessment of development options.

The results of the project will be published in international scientific journals, compilation works and conference proceedings and as monographs (published by well-known scientific publishers). The project aims at producing four doctoral dissertations.

Former research

Rautio, Vesa (2003). The Potential for Community Restructuring - Mining Towns in Pechenga. Kikimora Publications A 9.

Tykkyläinen, Markku (2003). North-West Russia as a gateway in Russian energy geopolitics. Fennia 181:2.